According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Ohio’s population experienced a slight increase of 0.22 percent between 2022 and 2023. However, long-term projections suggest that Ohio will continue to face a declining trend in its population, which has been ongoing for decades. Despite the slight increase, Ohio is still 13,300 residents short of its pre-pandemic levels.
According to the Ohio Population Projections Report 2023, the population of the state is expected to decline by 5.7 percent by 2050 due to the aging population, declining fertility rates, and stagnant migration patterns. This would result in a decrease of 675,000 people. The report also reveals that the state’s citizenry has already decreased by 10 percent between 2010 and 2020.
According to Wendy Diane Manning, a sociologist at Bowling Green State University, the decline in fertility rate across the country is reflected in Ohio as well. She mentioned that Ohio is following the same pattern as the rest of the United States.
According to census projections, the nation is expected to experience a point where deaths will surpass births, likely between 2038 and 2042. To sustain the population, international immigration will play a vital role. Ohio, for instance, witnessed a net gain of about 60,000 migrants, both domestic and international, between 2010 and 2020. This was the first time since the 1950s that Ohio experienced a net positive gain in immigration.
Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau, noted that the past five years have seen significant changes in the factors affecting population growth in the United States. While some of these changes, such as the spike in mortality rates due to the pandemic, are anticipated to be temporary, others such as the long-term decline in fertility rates are expected to persist.
The pandemic has taken a heavy toll on Ohio, with the number of deaths surpassing the number of births. In 2020, a staggering 143,600 residents lost their lives, marking the highest number of deaths ever recorded in a single year in the state’s history. Unfortunately, the number of fatalities increased even further in 2021 to reach 147,500. This grim reality highlights the devastating impact of the pandemic on the state’s population.
Communities need to undergo a lot of turmoil to adapt, even though the numbers on paper seem calm and straightforward. The United States has already gone through some of this process.
Experts in population studies are linking the decline in births to the rapid growth of urban areas and the increasing education of women worldwide. While economic factors still play a role, there is also a growing influence of subjective perceptions that have developed over the past few decades.
According to the authors of Empty Planet, the key to reducing birth rates lies in empowering women to make informed decisions about when and how many children to have. The book emphasizes that once women have access to the necessary information and autonomy, they tend to have fewer children and have them later in life. This idea is reiterated throughout the text, highlighting the importance of giving women agency in family planning.
The 21st century is seeing a significant transformation in the field of family planning, from access to abortion drugs and procedures to the availability of in vitro fertilization. Along with cultural shifts in personal fulfillment, this landscape is rapidly changing. Despite this, family planning remains a contentious issue and a battleground in Ohio and other places.
According to Ms. Manning, who co-directs the National Center for Family & Marriage Research, couples’ subjective feelings in response to the Great Recession and the subsequent pandemic appear to be significant factors in their decisions about family planning.
Ms. Manning noted that the decrease in birth rates has been a persistent issue for quite some time now. She further explained that individuals who are of child-bearing age may still be affected by the aftermath of the Great Recession that took place between 2007 and 2009. These individuals may even recall the hardships their parents faced during that period, which could contribute to their reluctance to have children.
The pandemic has caused a major disruption in the job market and has left a generation of young people feeling uncertain about their economic prospects. Many of them have been informed that their standard of living will not surpass that of their parents. On top of that, the exorbitant expenses associated with child care make raising a child a daunting financial commitment.
Ms. Manning highlighted the challenges women face in balancing work and family, noting that nowadays people are delaying marriage and parenthood. She emphasized that it is a difficult task for women to juggle both responsibilities effectively.
Ms. Manning believes that having two children is still the ideal situation.
According to her, people tend to delay having children due to the lack of a comfortable environment. She added that everything needs to be in place to make them feel at ease with their decision.
According to the Ohio Population Projections Report 2023, Ohio mothers gave birth to approximately 129,300 babies in 2020, which is the lowest number recorded since at least 1950. This represents a 4 percent decrease from the previous year. While it is possible that the pandemic only caused a temporary decline in fertility rates, the report suggests that it may have accelerated a pre-existing trend.
According to Sarah Hayford, the director of Ohio State University’s Institute for Population Research, she also observes similar sentiments being expressed.
According to Ms. Hayford, one of the main factors contributing to the current low birth rates is the trend of having children at a later stage in life. She pointed out that more individuals are now opting to have kids in their late 20s and early 30s instead of their early 20s. It remains to be seen whether birth rates will increase in the future as people strive to make up for the children they did not have earlier in life, or if the low birth rates will persist, leading to fewer children overall in people’s lives.
Ms. Hayford suggests that one of the primary reasons for delaying starting a family is to attain financial stability, which may involve securing a steady job or purchasing a home.
According to her, some individuals may hold higher expectations for being a good parent, and therefore, they may delay having children until they meet those expectations. Additionally, societal changes have led people to believe that they can lead a satisfying life even without parenthood. In today’s world, having children is not deemed essential for every individual’s adulthood.
There are those who argue that the Baby Boomer era was merely a temporary spike in fertility rates, and that we are now returning to a more sustainable level. This level is not driven by the excitement of a post-war victory and the desire for a traditional American Dream, complete with a house and white picket fence.
The National Center for Health Statistics of the CDC has reported that the fertility rate in the United States has reached an all-time low. Although there was a slight 1 percent increase from 2020 to 2021, the rate has been consistently decreasing by 2 percent from 2014 to 2020.
According to a study funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the global fertility rate is expected to decrease significantly by 2024. The study indicates that by 2100, 97% of countries will experience fertility rates below the required level to maintain a stable population over time.
Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, the lead research scientist from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine and co-lead author of the study, emphasized the significance of the findings, stating that “the implications are immense.” She added that the projected trends in fertility rates and live births would bring about fundamental changes in the global economy and the international balance of power, requiring a reorganization of societies.
According to a United Nations report, even the countries with the largest populations are expected to experience a significant decrease in population. In fact, China’s population has already started to decline in 2022, with an estimated population of 1.4 billion in 2023. The report predicts that by 2100, China’s population will decrease by at least 50 percent, leaving only around 770 million people. On the other hand, India has surpassed China’s population by a small margin of about 3 million. The U.N. projects that India’s population will peak at 1.7 billion individuals in 2064.
According to Aliaksandr Amialchuk, a professor of economics at the University of Toledo, the decline in fertility rates has been ongoing for some time now. He states that there are multiple factors that contribute to this decline, making it a complex issue to address.
According to him, job markets and housing markets in the United States lack stability, which is a cause of concern. Additionally, the cost of child care is a significant challenge for many families and can be quite daunting.
He stated that the economy undoubtedly plays a significant role in the decision-making process of having children. Adding further, he mentioned that it is a challenging decision to make.