Eight years ago, when conservative state lawmakers attempted to limit which bathrooms trans people could use, moderate Republicans quietly blocked the bill during a special session.
In less than a decade, that moment feels like a distant memory. The far-right now holds a tight grip on the Legislature and, energized by the recent election, is preparing to make rising anti-trans sentiment the central social issue of the session.
Across the country, Republicans have pushed similar laws, claiming they are designed to protect children. These laws ban medical transitioning before 18 and prohibit trans students from participating in sports teams not aligned with their biological sex.
Texas has aligned with other conservative states in passing laws targeting children. However, some lawmakers aim to further restrict the lives of trans adults, introducing bills that address bathroom usage, gender identity markers on official documents, and funding for gender reassignment surgeries.
“The American people, and especially Texans, have had enough of it,” Rep. Brian Harrison, an arch-conservative from Midlothian, told The Texas Tribune. “They’re forcing you to celebrate something that’s at odds with objective reality, and in many instances, forcing tax dollars to fund it.”
The extent to which Texas will pursue these measures depends on conservative lawmakers, as the state is unlikely to face federal opposition as it did under the Biden administration. Incoming President Donald Trump has pledged to push Congress to pass a bill declaring only two genders and to keep “transgender insanity the hell out of our schools.”
“I don’t see any reason the state would moderate its position at this point,” said Andrew Proctor, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who studies LGBTQ political issues. “If anything, the things they want to pursue will be easier now.”
A New Message Emerges
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In 2016, the U.S. Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, prompting conservatives to seek a new social issue. They turned their focus to the growing trans population and the increasing discrimination protections won during the Obama administration.
The following year, 2017, saw dozens of anti-trans bills introduced in state legislatures. Many, like Texas’ bathroom bill, failed. At the time, 57% of Republicans believed society had gone “too far” in accepting trans people.
Then, conservatives zeroed in on children. Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, a right-wing advocacy group, helped shape the messaging around this issue. He said conservatives are willing to be “polite” to trans individuals—but only to a point.
“Once you go into my daughter’s athletics or in her locker room or showers, once you start giving kids gender transitions that mutilate them and sterilize them, then we’re in a whole different world,” Schilling told The Texas Tribune after the election.
All major medical associations recognize that gender dysphoria—when a person’s physical appearance doesn’t align with their gender identity—is a real medical condition best treated with gender-affirming care. This care can include social transitions, such as changing pronouns or appearance, as well as medical treatments like puberty blockers, hormone therapy, and surgeries. Surgery for minors is rare and always occurs with parental consent and guidance from medical professionals.
Despite this, the conservative messaging struck a chord. Last year, nearly 80% of Republicans said society had gone too far in accepting trans people, and in 2023, even with Texas at a standstill, there were 669 anti-trans bills filed in state legislatures nationwide.
However, it remains unclear what Americans truly want the government to do. Over half of Republicans don’t support banning gender-affirming care for minors, and many still want to protect trans people from discrimination in jobs, housing, and public spaces.
Texas’ ban on gender-affirming care for minors drew widespread condemnation from medical groups, doctors, and trans advocates, who called the law “dangerous,” “cruel,” and “devastating.” Despite the backlash, every Republican and a few Democrats voted for the ban.
Now, trans people, advocates, and healthcare providers are preparing for the next steps.
“It’s almost necessary, based on their framework and the way they frame these cases, that they would argue that access to care for adults would be a violation in the same way as for children,” said Elana Redfield, federal policy director at the Williams Institute, a research center at UCLA focused on gender identity law. “Texas has already made it clear they intend to do that.”
The Next Frontier
In 2024, while Texas is in an off year, other Republican states have moved forward with new legislation that could set the tone when the Texas Legislature reconvenes in January. No state has fully banned adults from accessing gender-affirming care, though states like Florida have significantly restricted these treatments, deterring doctors and patients.
Texas lawmakers have already filed bills addressing these issues. Sen. Bob Hall, a Republican from Edgewood, and Rep. Ellen Troxclair, an Austin Republican, have introduced bills that would require government records to recognize only two genders, based on reproductive organs. Other bills would prevent trans people from updating their birth certificates to match their gender identity.
“These laws have the effect of erasing transgender people altogether,” Redfield explained. Some of this is already happening: Earlier this year, the Texas Department of Public Safety, under scrutiny from Attorney General Ken Paxton, began refusing to change the sex on driver’s licenses, even with a court order. The agency also started collecting the names of individuals requesting such changes.
Lawmakers are also revisiting the bathroom issue, alongside proposals requiring trans individuals to be placed in prisons or jails according to their assigned sex at birth.
Harrison, the Midlothian Republican, has introduced a bill to block state funding for transition-related care.
This idea gained momentum during the presidential campaign when Trump accused Vice President Kamala Harris of supporting taxpayer-funded gender reassignment surgeries. In rare instances, federal inmates have won court cases mandating the government pay for transition-related medical care.
Harrison argues that his focus is on the appropriate use of tax dollars, while the media frames the issue as a social debate.
“We are making the lives harder for Texans of all stripes when we make them poorer, and we certainly shouldn’t make them poorer in the pursuit of leftist ideology,” he said.
Federal Shifts
On Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments in a lawsuit challenging Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care for minors. The outcome could determine the future of such restrictions in states like Texas. The Department of Justice filed the lawsuit in 2023, arguing the law discriminates based on gender.
The suit is part of a broader effort by the Biden administration to protect trans people from the effects of conservative state laws.
“The Biden administration has been the most explicitly protective administration for transgender people,” Redfield noted. “We can expect the incoming president to undo as much of that progress as possible.”
During his first term, Trump removed trans individuals from the military and reversed many Obama-era protections. He ran heavily on this record in his recent campaign, culminating in an ad that declared, “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.”
Project 2025, a policy blueprint by the conservative Heritage Foundation, suggests Trump will pursue measures like removing “sexual orientation” and “gender identity” from all federal regulations and restricting gender-affirming care across all age groups.
As trans people and advocates brace for potential changes in federal policy, many recommend taking steps like updating government documents to reflect their gender identity, gathering transition-related medications, and considering relocation—either within the U.S. or abroad.
Whatever Trump does, Texas is expected to push even further.
“Texas better do at least as good a job as Washington, D.C. is going to do on that front,” Harrison said. “And that’s what I’m committed to ensuring happens.”
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