Brief Outlook:
On Monday, November 18, 2024, severe weather is expected to hit the Southern Plains, particularly northeast Texas and southern Oklahoma, as an ongoing line of storms moves eastward. Cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa will likely experience significant impacts from damaging winds and isolated tornadoes during the morning, continuing into the afternoon before the storms move through quickly.
Upper Levels:
A negatively tilted mid-level trough will quickly move eastward into the Mississippi Valley by Monday. This setup will enhance the atmospheric conditions necessary for severe thunderstorms to develop.
Surface Forecast:
An active line of storms is expected to move through the region early Monday, driven by a rapidly deepening surface low. The cold front will interact with a moderately unstable air mass, with CAPE values ranging from 500-700 J/kg. While these instability values are moderate, strong dynamic lifting and substantial wind shear of 50-60 knots will boost storm organization and severity. This environment could support both linear and discrete supercell structures, increasing the risk of damaging winds and embedded tornadoes.
Timing:
Severe storms are expected to be most active in the morning, intensifying as they move eastward through the Southern Plains. The greatest risk period is from late morning through the afternoon, particularly for Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa. The potential for severe weather will decrease by late afternoon as the system moves eastward and encounters less favorable conditions.
States & Cities Impacted:
Northeast Texas and southern Oklahoma will see the most significant severe weather, with major cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa in the direct path of the storms.
Main impacts: Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and lightning.
Stay tuned for more updates.