As Debby draws attention on the East coast, a tropical wave making its way through the Caribbean is expected to gain momentum and potentially affect Texas or Louisiana in the upcoming weekend.
Since last week, our team of AccuWeather meteorologists has been closely monitoring a tropical wave of low pressure. As this feature has now entered the Caribbean Sea, there is a growing likelihood of its development. It is possible that the area stretching from the western Caribbean to the western Gulf of Mexico could be the birthplace of the next tropical storm.
According to AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert, Alex DaSilva, there are no significant obstacles for the tropical wave in the near future. He stated that wind shear is at a minimum, the atmosphere is moist, and the water temperatures are optimal for potential development later this week and into the weekend.
When it comes to tropical weather, wind shear can be a real problem. This is caused by strong breezes that blow in different directions, making it difficult for tropical systems to develop or maintain their strength. In addition, water temperature plays a crucial role in the formation and intensification of these storms. As a general rule, the water temperature needs to be around 78 F or higher for a tropical storm to form. Luckily, the water temperature is in the 80s in the storm’s path, and the warm water runs deep, which means that the surface water churned up by the storm is unlikely to cool down significantly.
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The tropical feature has the potential to track across a wide range of areas.
There is a possibility that the feature could head directly towards Central America or southern Mexico, but its progress may be hindered by land interaction, which could prevent further development.
If the hurricane follows a different route, it could potentially head towards the northwest and encounter the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico before entering the central or southwestern region of the Gulf of Mexico.
It is crucial for regions spanning from Nicaragua and Guatemala all the way to Belize, Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana to keep a close eye on the advancement of this feature.
At the moment, the Caribbean feature is posing a moderate risk of tropical development as identified by AccuWeather.
Before the end of this week, even if it doesn’t develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, heavy showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent in parts of Central America and southeastern Mexico due to the weather system. The rainfall may be substantial enough to cause urban flooding and flash flooding of small streams in the region. In hilly areas, there is an increased risk of mudslides. Fishing and boating enthusiasts should be aware of this weather phenomenon and monitor it closely.
There’s a high chance of showers and thunderstorms escalating in the western and central Gulf of Mexico from Friday to Saturday. Should a tropical storm fully form in this region, it could possibly make landfall towards the end of the weekend or early next week.
So far this season, four tropical systems have been named, with three of them either passing through or developing near the western Gulf of Mexico. The named storms include Alberto, Beryl, and Chris. Beryl was particularly noteworthy as it set a record for the area it affected and how strong it became so early in the season. However, the first named storm to avoid the region was Debby, which made landfall in northern Florida.
